Latest gold price predictions by analysts
Below you can find a compilation of the latest gold price forecasts by analysts. We are regularly extending this list with new predictions for the price of gold. Please send us a short email, if you miss a forecast by a renowned institution or analyst you would like to have included. We will then consider including that forecast in our outlook.
Experts of the London Bullion Market Association expect rise of gold price by 10%
October 18th, 2022
At the annual meeting of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in Lisbon, Portugal, leading gold traders, miners, refiners and other experts expected the gold price to increase by about 10% to US$ 1,830.50 within the next twelve months. This development is forecasted in light of tighter monetary policies and expectations of rises in interest rates.
Timeframe | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
October 2023 | US$ 1,830.50 |
Source:
Goldman Sachs analysts expect gold price to rise to US$2,500 by the end of 2022
March 23rd, 2022
Analysts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs are forecasting a sharp rise in the price of gold during this year. At the end of March, they predicted an increase to 2,300 US dollars per troy ounce on a three-month horizon and even a price of 2,500 US dollars on a six- and 12-month horizon.
The analysts cite the following reasons for their expectations:
- Rising commodity prices in the wake of the war in Ukraine would lower growth expectations in the developed countries, increase concerns about inflation and lead to high inflows into gold ETFs and thus rising demand for gold.
- Due to the sanctions, Russia would not be able to sell gold reserves and thereby increase the supply of gold. On the contrary, Russia as well as other countries would probably invest even more of their reserves in gold in the future.
- Strong demand from private customers in Asia due to a significant economic recovery as well as the lack of investment alternatives.
Scenario | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Continuing global recovery, moderate inflation | US$ 2,000 | |
Slowing of global recovery, higher inflation | US$ 2,500 |
Source:
Goldman Sachs sees gold prices hitting $2,500/oz by year-end
Analysts surveyed by the LBMA did not expect any major changes in the gold price for 2022 before the outbreak of war
February 1st, 2022
For 2022, as every year, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) surveyed analysts – 34 in number this year – on their assessments of the price trend for gold and other precious metals for the rest of the year.
For this year, the analysts had overall neutral expectations with regard to the gold price; no major changes are expected compared to the average gold price of the previous year. The expected average price of around US$1,802 per troy ounce would correspond to a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the average price in 2021. However, the forecasts were made in the first half of January and thus before the start of the war in Ukraine.
The analysts cited the following as the three main drivers of the gold price in 2022:
1) The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, i.e. the central bank of the USA
2) Inflation
3) The development of the stock market
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Average price of gold in 2022 | US$ 1,801.9 |
Source:
London Bullion Market Association: 2022 Precious Metals Forecast Survey
Goldman Sachs analysts sees gold outperforming crypto and being undervalued
July 6th, 2021
According to the investment bank Goldman Sachs, the gold price has significant upside potential of reaching up to US$ 2,500, which would be equal to an increase of about 38% from today’s prices. This scenario would require a slowing of the economy or higher than expected inflation rates. The current price of about US$ 1,800 per ounce would price in a ‘goldilocks’ scenario and assume global economic recovery to continue from the corona-crisis and moderate inflation. In a situation of continuing global recovery and only moderate inflation, Goldman Sachs expects a gold price of US$ 2,000, which would imply an upside of about 10% from current prices.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to perform better as a hedge against inflation than cryptocurrencies. It views gold as a good hedge against tail risks given the potential upside, while cryptocurrencies would still be far from “becoming a defensive long-term store of value like gold”.
Scenario | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Continuing global recovery, moderate inflation | US$ 2,000 | |
Slowing of global recovery, higher inflation | US$ 2,500 |
Source:
Worldbank forecasts lower gold prices
April 2021
The Worldbank predicts in its newest Commodities Markets Outlook from April 2021, which is based on data until April 16th, falling prices for gold over the coming years.
The Worldbank’s analysts cite a drop in financial investment demand due to rising U.S. real yields as a reason that would make gold less attractive to investors. Although demand for gold was recovering from a substantial decline in 2020, it would still remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels. On the supply side, gold production was rebounding from the shutdowns following the start of the Corona-crisis. The analysts expect that production will expand through 2022 given that prices were well above production costs. The Worldbank forecasts prices to average 4% lower in 2021, and decline further in 2022. According to the Worldbank, nominal gold prices in U.S.-dollars should decline by 2025, before they tend higher again through 2030 and 2035.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2021 | US$ 1,700 | |
2022 | US$ 1,600 | |
2023 | US$ 1,550 | |
2035 | US$ 1,600 |
Source:
Analysts surveyed by the LBMA predict average gold price of US$ 1,974 for 2021
February 4th, 2021
The London Bullion Market Association published its annual precious metals forecast survey. On average, the 38 surveyed analysts forecast a price of US$ 1,973.8 per troy ounce in 2021. This would imply a gain of 4.6% versus the average price level in January 2021 and an increase of about 11.5% over the average price seen in 2020.
The LBMA cites declining interest rates in the United States, as well as the monetary and fiscal policy and a weak US dollar as key reasons mentioned by the surveyed analysts. The range of this year’s predictions is wide due to uncertainties around geopolitics, the COVID-19 pandemic and economic growth expectations.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2021 | US$ 1,974 |
Source:
Goldman Sachs sticks to gold price target of US$ 2,300 for 2021
November 17th, 2020
The global investment bank Goldman has reiterated its previous 12 month target of US$ 2,300 for the gold price. In a note, analysts cite inflation worries following the Corona crisis as a key driver for a higher price of gold. The bank expects inflation in the United States to rise temporarily to 3%, which would be above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
A rising inflation rate could increase fears amongst investors of higher long-term inflation rates, which in terms could drive demand for gold as a hedge against inflation.
Other factors for a rise of the gold price could be the recovery of gold demand from emerging markets such as China and India as well as expectations of a weaker dollar.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2021 | US$ 2,300 |
Source:
Gold will soar 22% next year as investors protect against rising inflation, Goldman Sachs says
Analysts from Morgan Stanley expect a decline of the gold price
November 16, 2020
According to the website MineralPrices.com, gold price analysts of Morgan Stanley, a global bank, foresee a declining gold price in 2021 and 2022.
For 2021 the bank assumes an average gold price of US$ 1,835 per troy ounce, for 2022 a price of US$ 1,745.
The Bank’s analysts see vaccines against COVID-19 driving economic recovery beyond China which could result in lower monetary and fiscal stimuli. Together with rising 10 year rates this could drive the gold price down.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2021 average | US$ 1,835 | |
2022 | US$ 1,745 |
Source:
Goldman Sachs raises gold price forecast for the next 12 months from USD 2,000 to USD 2,300
July 28th, 2020
According to a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs, the global investment bank, the rise in the price of gold to new highs, which lately has outpaced gains in real interest rates and other alternatives to the US dollar, has been driven by “a potential shift in the U.S. Fed toward an inflationary bias against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, elevated U.S. domestic political and social uncertainty, and a growing second wave of COVID-19 related infections.”
According to the analysts, combined with a record level of debt accumulation by the US government, real concerns have been raised about the longevity of the US dollar as a reserve currency.
Another point made by the analysts led by Jeffrey Currie is that hedges against inflation, such as commodities and equities, are probably much cheaper at the moment than they might be in the future, when inflation might be on the horizon. The current devaluation – which is lowering the value of currencies – and the accumulation of debt “sows the seeds for future inflationary risks despite inflationary risks remaining low today.”
“We have long maintained gold is the currency of last resort, particularly in an environment like the current one where governments are debasing their fiat currencies and pushing real interest rates to all-time lows,” the team of analysts made clear. They further added “We see inflationary concerns continuing to rise well into the economic recovery, sustaining hedging inflows into gold ETFs alongside the structural weakening of the dollar, we see gold being used as a dollar hedge by fund managers.”
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Gold price target 12 months | US$ 2,300 |
Sources:
MarketWatch: Goldman Sachs has a new blowout forecast for gold
Reuters: Goldman hikes 12-month gold price forecast to $2,300
Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s analyst sees gold price cross US$ 2,000 in next few months
July 27, 2020
Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Vivek Dhar, mining and energy commodities analyst told CNBC that they think that with the current momentum in the next few months the price of gold will cross the US$ 2,000 an ounce mark.
According to Dhar, the key question is how much the rally does increase after that. Gold prices could even surge beyond 2,500 US dollars per ounce.
The “key story” behind gold’s summer rally wasn’t falling nominal yields, but an increase in 10-year inflation expectations. “That’s really what’s driven this recent leg up. Understanding how sustainable that is is really the key to unlocking whether this rally has more legs to run,” he added.
Dhar elaborated that in order to see prices well above that level – like $2,500 per ounce – the U.S. would have to move interest rates to below zero.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Gold price target next few months | US$ 2,000 | |
Longer term | potentially US$ 2,500 |
Sources:
CNBC: Gold prices could top $2,000 this year, analysts predict
Bank of America raises its 18 months gold price target to US$ 3,000 per ounce
April 21, 2020
Analysts of Bank of America have published a report titled ‘The Fed Can’t Print Gold’ and set a gold price of US$ 3,000 in 18 months. According to the analysts, interest rates in the United States as well of the rest of the world are expected to stay very low for a long time.
Government spending, deficits and central banks’ balance sheets are predicted to increase significantly. While the strong US-dollar and weak jewellery demand from countries like India and China will put pressure on the gold price, the demand from investors is expected to drive the gold price in the end higher.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Average 2020 forecast | US$ 1,695 | |
Average 2021 forecast | US$ 2,063 | |
Gold price target 18 months | US$ 3,000 |
Sources:
Gold is heading for $3,000, Bank of America Says. ‘The Fed Can’t Print Gold.’
Gold to Reach $3,000—50% Above Its Record, Bank of America Says
Goldman Sachs says gold price could hit $1,800 over the next 12 months
March 24, 2020
According to an article by the Financial Times, Goldman Sachs’s head of commodities Jeffrey Currie stated that “gold was at an inflection point and could hit $1,800 over the next 12 months.” Currie and his colleagues view gold as a hedge against currency debasement. According to Business Insider, “Goldman Sachs says now is the time to buy gold, the safe-haven asset, amid market panic over the impact of the growing coronavirus pandemic.”
Goldman Sachs recommended buying gold at its current price.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
12 months | US$ 1,800 |
Sources:
Goldman Sachs tells clients it is time to buy gold, Financial Times
Goldman Sachs sees gold price at 1,600 US dollars in 2020
December 9, 2019
Goldman Sachs’ precious metal analysts assume in a study the gold price to continue to rise next year due to economic and financial uncertainties.
According to the analysts, the main reason is increasing uncertainty due to the discussion about the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which is currently being fired especially in the US by democratic presidential candidates such as Bernie Sanders, as well as trade tensions and the approaching US presidential election.
According to Modern Monetary Theory, deficits and debt are generally considered relatively unproblematic as long as inflation remains low. In particular progressive supporters of this theory therefore frequently argue the state should make greater use of low interest rates for investments in infrastructure and social programs, even if this should lead to higher deficits and debt, and the government should increase growth and combat inequality through targeted spending.
According to the report, even in the next recession, the government is unlikely to switch to direct monetary financing of expenditures, and inflation is likely to be kept under control. However, the mere talk of more debt, like the introduction of quantitative easing in the US during the last financial crisis in 2008, will increase demand for gold – even if, as back then, there should be no rampant inflation in the end. The reason for this is the risk of currency devaluation and high inflation. Even if MMT is unlikely to be widely applied, increased discussions about it alone would lead to uncertainty among investors.
Gold would still be regarded as a safe haven and an investment that is not correlated with other asset classes such as equities. In times of crisis or when there are perceived risks for the economic development, there would therefore be an increased demand for the precious metal.
According to Goldman Sachs, the described uncertainty “may be one of the reasons why we see evidence of a non-ETF vaulted gold build, as high net worth individuals may want to store gold outside the financial system.”
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2020 | US$ 1,600 |
Source:
ING expects gold prices to peak at 1,500 US dollars in 2020
November 29, 2019
In its outlook for 2020, the global bank ING assumes that the continuing uncertainty regarding trade conflicts and global growth, as well as dovish policies by central banks, will continue to support the demand for gold as a safe haven and support the price of gold next year.
For the coming year, the Dutch bank expects gold prices of between 1,450 and around 1,500 US dollars per ounce. According to the bank’s 2020 Commodities Outlook, an average price of around 1,475 US dollars is expected over the course of 2020.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Q4 2019 | US$ 1,500 | |
Q1 2020 | US$ 1,500 | |
Q2 2020 | US$ 1,470 | |
Q3 2020 | US$ 1,470 | |
Q4 2020 | US$ 1,480 |
Source: Gold-prices-to-peak-at-1-500-in-2020-Fed-to-play-key-role, KITCO News
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst thinks gold price of 2,000 US dollars possible
August 8, 2019
According to Michael Widmer, analyst of Bank of America, the price of gold could rise to $2,000 over the next two years. While he expects a gold price of 1,500 US dollars per ounce in the base scenario for the second quarter of 2020, he believes that a gold price of 2,000 US dollars could be reached within two years.
Widmer cites several reasons for a possible price increase. In addition to trade conflicts, a loose monetary policy and the resulting higher inflation expectations as well as purchases by central banks could lead to further price increases. According to Widmer, there is a strong correlation between gold purchases by central banks and rising gold prices.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Base case Q2 2020 | US$ 1,500 | |
Bullish case 2 years | US$ 2,000 |
Sources: BofAML’s Widmer Sees Path to $2000 Gold in Two Years, Goldman Sees Gold Prices Climbing to $1,600
Goldman Sachs expects gold price to rise to 1,600 US dollars in the next six months
August 9, 2019
Goldman Sachs analysts expect a gold price of 1,600 US dollars within the next six months after the recent price surge to over 1,500 US dollars.
The bank cites a worsening outlook for the global economy and growing trade disputes between the US and China as the drivers. Both would enhance the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against financial turmoil as investors seek security.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman analysts said in a note Wednesday: “If growth worries persist, possibly due to a trade war escalation, gold could go even higher, driven by a larger ETF gold allocation from portfolio managers who still continue to under-own gold” and “Gold ETFs have recently built momentum almost as strong as in 2016, and we believe that can be maintained in the short-term.”
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
6 months | US$ 1,600 |
Citibank updates forecasts of gold price
August 5, 2019
The US investment bank Citibank has updated the gold prices it expects in the future. Its 6-12 months forecast stands now at 1,525.- US dollars per ounce, while Citi’s long terms forecast is 1,200.- US dollars.
Citibank’s Weeky FX Insight from August 5 states “.. monetary policy and the rates cycle [were] in the driver’s seat for gold”.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
6-12 months | US$ 1,525 | |
Long term | US$ 1,200 |
US investment bank Goldman Sachs raises its gold price forecasts
June 25, 2019
Goldman Sachs analysts have significantly raised their gold price forecasts over the next 12 months. Within the next three months they now expect a price level of 1,450 US dollars, 100 US dollars more than the last estimate. Price expectations for 6 and 12 months have also been adjusted upwards by 125 and 50 US dollars respectively to 1,475 US dollars each.
The main arguments cited for a rise in the gold price are increased gold purchases from central banks and lower real interest rates.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
3 months | US$ 1,450 | |
6 months | US$ 1,475 | |
12 months | US$ 1,475 |
New Commodities Markets Outlook by the Worldbank predicts higher gold price
April 2019
Worldbank issued its updated outlook on the commodities markets. The outlook includes gold price forecasts. For 2019 a price of 1,310 US dollars per ounce is expected. The gold price is forecast to rise further to 1,360 US dollars in 2020.
The Worldbank cites expectations of robust demand and a prolonged pause in interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve as drivers for an increase of the gold price.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2019 | US$ 1,310 | |
2020 | US$ 1,360 | |
2030 | US$ 1,300 |
Analysts of the London gold market expect a slightly rising gold price on average in 2019 with widely varying forecasts
Spring 2019
30 analysts surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association as part of their precious metals price forecasts expect a slight increase in the price of gold in 2019. On average, analysts predict a gold price of US$1,311 per troy ounce for 2019, an increase of 1.8% over the average price in the first two weeks of January 2019.
What is striking, however, is that the forecasts cover a wide range – the forecasts differ by up to USD 325, which corresponds to around a quarter of the predicted price. This shows how divided the analysts are about the development of the gold price. In addition to the Brexit and the trade war between the USA and China, uncertainty is caused by the interest rate level in the US, the strength of the dollar, geopolitical factors and global economic growth.
Eddie Nagao of the Sumitomo Corporation in Tokyo is the most optimistic, as he believes that the Fed will not be able to raise interest rates as desired and the risk of a recession in the US is now higher and volatility is likely to increase. Institutional and private investors would therefore prefer an investment in gold to some other investments. However, Eddie Nagao also quotes a range of 1,175 to 1,475 US dollars.
Peter Fertig of QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd, Hainburg, who forecasts a gold price between as low as 1,150 and as high as 1,375 US dollars, sees a strong US economy and a low US unemployment rate as the main risks for the gold price. Against this backdrop, the Fed could make two unscheduled rate hikes that could strengthen the dollar, with negative consequences for the price of gold. In Asian markets, the trade war could dampen demand for gold.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Average 2019 forecast | US$ 1,311 |
Scotiabank sees gold price at U.S dollars 1,300 per troy ounce in 2019 and 2020
January 11, 2019
According to Scotiabank’s recently published outlook on commodities the gold price will remain more or less stable compared to current prices, “caught between rising rates and a weak US dollar”.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2019 | US$ 1,300 | |
2020 | US$ 1,300 |
Goldman Sachs forecasts rising gold prices in 2019
January 10, 2018
The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-months outlook for the gold price. The bank now expects a price of U.S. dollars 1,425 per troy ounce by end of the year 2019, an increase by more than 10% from current prices.
Goldman Sach’s Jeffrey Currie sees a growing demand for “defensive assets” as well as increasing central bank buying as key drivers. They should be caused by rising geopolitical tensions as well as fears of an upcoming recession.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Q1 2019 | US$ 1,325 | |
1. HY 2019 | US$ 1,375 | |
End of 2019 | US$ 1,425 |
Source: CNBC
Worldbank forecasts gold price of U.S. dollars 1,245 per ounce in 2019
October 29, 2018
Worldbank published updated price forecasts for gold in its recent Commodities Price Forecast. According to the publication, Worldbank expects the gold price to fall over the coming years, reaching U.S. dollars 1,100 in 2030.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2019 | US$ 1,245 | |
2020 | US$ 1,231 | |
2025 | US$ 1,164 | |
2030 | US$ 1,100 |
J.P. Morgan lowers gold price forecast, but maintains positive outlook
June 14, 2018
The analysts of J.P. Morgan Commodities Research remain optimistic about the development of the gold price, but have slightly lowered their forecasts for 2018, 2019 and 2020 by four to five percent respectively. For 2018 they now expect a gold price of 1,355 U.S. dollars per ounce (previously 1,408 U.S. dollars), for 2019 1,412 U.S. dollars (previously 1,475), for 2020 1,460 U.S. dollars (previously 1,535).
In their report, the analysts state that their overall macroeconomic assessment has remained broadly unchanged and that they still remain bullish on gold, silver, and copper.
They justify lowering their forecasts with the positive outlook for the dollar price, which they view as the greatest threat to the gold price in the short and long term. By contrast, the fundamentals of supply and demand and historical late-cycle dynamics pointed to higher gold prices.
In their report, the analysts describe a negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold, silver, and copper, pointing out that the U.S. dollar has risen by 1.3% in the last four weeks, while gold has fallen by 0.85% over the same period.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Q3 2018 | US$ 1,390 | |
2018 | US$ 1,355 | |
2019 | US$ 1,412 | |
2020 | US$ 1,460 |
Source: Kitco News
Goldman Sachs increases gold price forecast to US$ 1,450 by next year
February 8, 2018
Analysts of the global investment bank Goldman Sachs significantly increased their forecast for the price of gold citing renewed growth in emerging markets. In a new report, they forecast a price of US$ 1,350 an ounce in three months, US$ 1,375 in six months and US$ 1,450 by next year.
The analysts expect emerging-market growth trending above 6% for 2018, which they assume will increase household wealth and will result in consumers buying more gold.
According to the firm, the emerging-market gold demand started getting stronger in the fourth quarter as global jewelry demand reached a total of 650 tonnes, the fourth-strongest quarterly performance.
“This matters a lot for the level of overall gold demand, as jewelry is the single largest component of demand (greater than 50%), while investment demand is typically only around 30% and ETFs are a tiny fraction of this,” the analysts were cited by Kitco News.
According to the analysts, the gold price has been able to withstand rising bond yields due to this renewed demand for gold from the emerging markets.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Q1 2018 | US$ 1,350 | |
mid 2018 | US$ 1,375 | |
2019 | US$ 1,450 |
Source: Kitco News
Goldman Sachs expects gold price to fall into mid-2018, increase to end of 2020
December 20, 2017
The investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices to fall to 1,200 U.S. dollars per ounce by mid-2018 amid falling concerns of market participants, as marketplace fears generally make gold a safe haven for investors. Due to rising demand from emerging markets, the bank expects the price to rise to $ 1,375 by the end of 2020.
The analysts said the weak gold price trend was not linked to the dramatic increase in the bitcoin price, as evidenced by the absence of the otherwise to be expected broad exit from gold ETFs. Gold and cryptocurrencies are considered to be very different asset classes by the analysts.
The analysts claim that the uncertainty among market participants had decreased due to the successful implementation of the tax reform and the apparently smooth transition to a new Fed chair.
The main factors for their short-term negative outlook for the gold price are the robust growth of the gross domestic product of the developed countries, further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, no deterioration in geopolitical risks and the expected absence of a recession in 2018 and 2019.
In the long term, analysts expect gold demand to rise on strong growth in emerging markets, and the ‘wealth’ channel to eventually dominate the demand for gold.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Q1 2018 | US$ 1,225 | |
mid 2018 | US$ 1,200 | |
Q4 2018 | US$ 1,225 | |
end of 2020 | US$ 1,375 |
Source: Kitco News
Danske Bank forecasts a gold price of US$ 1,250 in the fourth quarter of 2018
September 15, 2017
In its Weekly Focus from September 15th, Danske Bank provided its quarterly forecasts for the gold price as well as average prices for for 2017 and 2018.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Q3 2017 | US$ 1,250 | |
Q4 2017 | US$ 1,210 | |
Q4 2018 | US$ 1,250 | |
Average for 2017 | US$ 1,235 | |
Average for 2018 | US$ 1,235 |
Source: Weekly Focus
Commerzbank analyst expects gold price to rise to 1,400 U.S. dollars by the end of 2018
April 14, 2017
In an interview with Focus magazine, Eugen Weinberg, a gold price expert at Commerzbank, is expecting a gold price of 1,300 USD by the end of the year. He expects the price to further increase to around 1,400 U.S. dollars by the end of 2018.
According to the analyst, the monetary policy of the central banks, inflation, risk spreads, current developments in the economy as well as reactions to political risks are generally essential for the development of the gold price, since gold has a status as a safe haven in crises.
The demand for the gold price is key, with investment demand playing a much more important role for gold price development than jewellery demand, since the former is much more dynamic. He also sees gold purely as an investment which has lost its status as a raw material since the 90s. According to the analyst, against popular view, production costs do not really matter for the gold price.
Regarding the fact that the gold price has stayed at a high level for months, although the Fed has announced further increases in interest rates, Mr. Weinberg points out that real interest rates would be much more important than the currently rising nominal interest rates. The Fed, however, would apparently not raise the key rate as much as inflation is rising. However, low or negative real interest rates would constitute a good environment for gold, further strengthening the demand of central banks and investors. According to Weinberg, investors would not be investing in gold for fear of geopolitical risks or a total loss of assets, instead, the precious metal currently would serve them as capital protection – for fear of low interest rates.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
End of 2017 | US$ 1,300 | |
End of 2018 | US$ 1,400 |
Source: Interview by Focus with Commerzbanks’ gold price expert Eugen Weinberg
Scotiabank expects stable gold prices for 2017 and 2018
March 7, 2017
Canada’s Scotiabank expects gold prices for 2017 and 2018 at USD 1,200, slightly below current prices.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2017 (average) | US$ 1,200 | |
2018 (average) | US$ 1,200 |
Sources: Scotiabank’s Forecasts
Dutch bank ABN Amro sees higher gold prices in 2017 and 2018
March 3, 2017
According to the online business community BNamercias, ABN Amro raised its gold price forecasts. The bank now expects a gold price of USD 1,300 for the end of 2017 and a price of USD 1,400 by end of 2018.
BNamericas quotes ABN Amro’s Georgette Boele with “It is likely that in Q3 the gold price outlook will turn positive” and “…we expect US real yields start to edge lower and the US dollar starts to decline versus a number of currencies such as the Japanese yen” despite several expected rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
End of 2017 | US$ 1,300 | |
End of 2018 | US$ 1,400 |
Sources: ABN Amro Gold Price Forecasts
London bullion market analysts expect a rising gold price for 2017
January 31, 2017
The 30 analysts participating in the 2017 Precious Metals Forecast Survey of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) are bullish on the price of gold for 2017. On average, the analysts assume with a predicted gold price of USD 1,244 for 2017 an increase by 5.3% over the gold prices seen during the first two weeks of January 2017.
Toni Teves of Swiss banking giant UBS makes the highest prediction of an average gold price of USD 1,350 for 2017. According to Teves “…gold allocation within a portfolio is warranted given a relatively benign rate environment, modest growth acceleration and elevated macro risks. We think further gains in gold are likely to be driven by a continuation of strategic portfolio allocation from a diverse set of investors.”
The most pessimistic forecast among the 30 surveyed analysts comes from Bernard Dahdah of the French investment bank Natixis. Dahdah expects an average gold price of USD 1,110 for 2017, but he also predicts a potential high of USD 1,400 and a potential low of USD 1,060. Dahdah assumes “…Fed rate hikes to have the biggest impact on gold prices … Ensuing outflows from physically backed ETPs are expected to weigh on prices. That said, we expect 2017 will be marked by potential geopolitical tensions and uncertainties which could slow down the pressure emanating from the Fed rate hikes.”
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Average 2017 forecast | US$ 1,244 |
Worldbank sees declining gold prices
January 24, 2017
Worldbank issued a new commodity price forecast, according to which the gold price is forecast to fall in 2017 and over the following years.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2017 | US$ 1,150 | |
2018 | US$ 1,138 | |
2020 | US$ 1,114 | |
2030 | US$ 1,000 |
ABN AMRO predicts lower gold prices in 2017 but recovery in 2018
November 24, 2016
While gold prices have fallen below 1,200.- U.S. dollars, ABN AMRO expects the price of gold to weaken to 1,100,- USD in 2017 before recovering to 1,300.- U.S. dollars at the end of 2018.
After the short-lived gold price rally triggered by Trump’s election victory, according to the bank, investor sentiment made a ‘dramatic U-turn’. ABN AMRO states that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the rally in U.S. equity markets in combination with an environment of positive investor sentiment substantially strengthened the U.S. dollar and caused the decline in gold prices.
The bank expects the current negative environment for gold prices to stay in place for 2017. As the key driver for the gold price they identify investor demand which they expect not to be compensated by rising jewellery and industrial demand due to lower prices.
According to the bank, rising inflation expectations are more than offset by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and expectations about upcoming rate hikes by the Fed. A rise in U.S. real yields and the absence of major inflation fears would push the gold price lower.
Higher U.S. equities, expectations of more rate hikes by the Fed and expectations of a strong uplift in the U.S. economy would drive the U.S. dollar. According to the bank, investors ‘will find zero-income paying asset gold and other precious metals unattractive because of higher income in equities and bonds’.
The bank expects the U.S. dollar to peak in 2017 and to weaken considerably in 2018. This in combination with more attractive prices and higher jewellery demand from China should be an incentive for investors to invest in gold again and support a price recovery back to 1,300,- U.S. dollar.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2017 (end period) | US$ 1,100 | |
2018 (end period) | US$ 1,300 | – |
Sources: ABN AMRO Precious Metals Forecast
In light of Trump’s victory in the US election, Scotiabank forecasts a slightly higher gold price for 2017 and 2018
November 22, 2016
The bank generally assumes in its growth forecast that the Trump’s administration tax and infrastructure plans will have a moderately positive effect on the U.S. economy toward the second half of 2017 and into 2018.
They predict a U.S. growth in 2017 of 2.1% due to initial caution with regard to private investments and expect growth ‘to remain otherwise broadly supported by mildly improving consumer spending, solid job growth, rising wages, and income gains, as well as by stronger industrial activity after a period of inventory de-stocking’. For 2018, the bank increases its U.S. growth forecast from 2.2% to 2.4% referring to an expected increase in infrastructure spending and tax cuts.
Moreover, the bank expects the U.S. dollar to strengthen in 2017, supported by growth optimism and shifting Fed policy risks in the aftermath of the U.S. election.
They expect the Fed to lift the upper end of the Fed funds rate target range to 2% by end-2018 assuming a stronger U.S. dollar and steeper yield curves will neutralize some of the effects of a more stimulative fiscal policy and possible deregulation on growth.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2017 (annual average) | US$ 1,300 | |
2018 (annual average) | US$ 1,300 |
Sources: Scotiabank’s Forecast Tables
RBC Capital Markets makes aggressive gold price forecast for 2017 and 2018, saying a new bull market is under way
July, 2016
Citing strong investor demand, RBC Capital Markets, the Canadian investment bank which is part of the Royal Bank of Canada, is predicting a gold price of US$ 1,500 an ounce in 2017 and 2018. In its previous forecast, the bank still expected a considerably lower price of US$ 1,300 an ounce.
According to the bank, the ratio of daily net inflows into gold-backed ETFs versus outflows is about 8:1, showing strong investor demand. The bank’s analysts expect that strong investor demand to continue due to higher geopolitical uncertainty and higher systemic risk associated with declining real interest rates. In a note to investors, they voice their believe that “the economic environment is more favourable for gold with a dovish outlook by the US Fed, declining (U.S. dollar) real rates, global central bankers looking to negative real rates for economic stimulus and steady fundamental demand for physical gold.”
According to the analysts, investors see gold as a store of value and a hedge against negative real interest rates. In their view, global bond markets and negative real and nominal interest rates are having the biggest impact on gold prices, with more than $10 trillion in global sovereign debt now yielding negative returns.
For 2020, the analysts expect the gold price to come down again to US$ 1,300.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2017 | US$ 1,500 | |
2018 | US$ 1,500 | |
2020 | US$ 1,300 |
Sources: KITCO, July 15th, 2016; News. Markets, July 18th, 2016
ABN Amro, amid a rising price, again rises its gold price forecast
July, 2016
The Dutch bank ABN Amro, which less than a year ago was expecting a gold price of US$ 800 by the end of 2016 and just a few months later reversed its price forecast to US$ 1,200, is now expecting a price of USD 1,450 per ounce for the end of 2017 in its latests update report on commodity prices.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
end of 2017 | US$ 1,450 |
Source: News. Markets, July 18th, 2016
Goldman Sachs increases gold price forecasts based on stronger net speculative positioning and a weaker U.S. dollar
May 11, 2016
The bank raised its gold price forecasts for the three, six and twelve months periods to US$ 1,200 (from previously US$ 1,100), 1,180 (previously 1,050) and 1,150 (previously 1,100) per ounce, respectively. It justified the higher forecasts with a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger net speculative positioning.
As the price of one ounce of gold is currently above US$ 1,260, the increased forecasts still mean a decrease of it’s price.
However, the bank said it would not see much room for further increases in the price of gold as there was not much room for the U.S. dollar to depreciate as the Fed had not much room left to lower interest rates. Moreover, the Chinese economy would have only limited room to contribute to the U.S. dollars weakness by driving emerging market currency strength which, in turn, would weaken the U.S. dollar.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
next three months | US$ 1,200 | |
next six months | US$ 1,180 | |
next twelve months | US$ 1,150 |
Source: CNBC / Reuters, May 11th, 2016
HSBC’s Chef precious metals analyst is moderately bullish on gold for 2016
January 15, 2016
Analyst James Steele of global bank HSBC forecasts an average gold price of U.S. dollars 1,205 for 2016. This forecast is based on an expected softening of the U.S. dollar as well as rising demand for gold from emerging markets later in 2016.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2016, average | US$ 1,205 |
Source: The Guardian, January 15th, 2016
Scotiabank expects increase in gold demand and potentially stronger prices in 2016
December, 2015
The analysts of Scotia Mocatta (Scotiabank) expect the gold price to be in a range from US dollars 950 to 1,280 in 2016.
According to Scotia Mocatta the global economic slowdown could halt and economic growth increase in 2016. This should improve demand for gold. Even the investment demand for gold could increase, if prices would seem to have found a base and start to rise again.
In order to see an even higher demand for gold and a stronger price increase, the analysts expect that investors would have to become worried about their wealth again. Such worries could be triggered by stock market corrections or rising interest rates. Following the multi-year correction of the gold price, investors could view gold as a safe-haven again, if needs arise.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2016 | US$ 950 – 1,280 | – |
Source: ScotiaMocatta, Precious Metals 2016 Forecast – Gold, December 2015
LBMA predicts a slight decrease in the gold price
January 28th, 2015
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) expects an average gold price of 1,211 US dollar for 2015. This is 0.6% lower than the average price of 1,218 US dollar in the first half of January.
The analysts surveyed by the LBMA foresee further pressure on the gold price coming from the potential increase in the value of of the US dollar, a possible increase of interest rates by the FED in the second half of 2015, Quantitative Easing programmes in Europe as well as a furthermore weak oil price. This would likely lead to a diminished demand for a hedge against inflation.
The gold price will likely be supported by the strong retail demand from China and India, whereas only limited support is expected to come from the central banks.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2015 | US$ 1,211 |
Source: London Bullion Market Association, Forecast 2015, January 2015
ScotiaMocatta expects a further fall of the gold price in the medium term
December 2014 / January 2015
ScotiaMocatta expects a further drop of the gold price over the coming years. This estimate is mainly based on the assumption that the investor’s need for safe-havens would have diminished. The financial markets’ stability and especially the fact that equities were moving from record high to record high would have led to an high opportunity cost of holding gold. Another factor is seen in the low physical demand for gold from India and China.
The analysts also mention that a stronger outlook for the gold price might not be that far away as an improvement in India’s Gold demand, China’s return to the market as well as an equity market correction could lead to a rebound.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2015f | US$ 1,150 | |
2016f | US$ 1,150 |
Source: ScotiaMocatta Precious Metals 2015 Forecast, December 2014 and Update January 8, 2015
Commerzbank forecasts a slight recovery of the gold price for the second half of 2015 and beyond
December 2, 2014
Commerzbank expects two distinct phases for the development of the gold price in 2015: a further decrease for the first six months of 2015, followed by a rise of the gold price in the second half of the year.
According to Commerzbank, the stronger US-dollar will still put pressure on gold prices in the first six months of 2015 due the increased speculations about interest rates hikes. But once this rise is underway the pressure is likely to abate in the second half of 2015. This expectation is based on the Fed’s last series of interest rate hikes between 2004-2006 and any deviation by the Fed from this assumed course of action will pose the greatest risk to this forecast.
The gold price is likely to be supported also from the reviving demand in China and inflows into gold ETFs.
A short rise is also expected to be seen in 2016 when an average gold price of USD 1,300 is forecasted.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
First half of 2015 | US$ 1,125 | |
Second half of 2015 | US$ 1,250 | |
2016 | US$ 1,300 |
Source: Commerzbank Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals December 2014
ABN AMRO expects a major drop in gold price
October 30, 2014
ABN AMRO Bank estimates a further decrease of the gold price over the coming three months as well as for 2015. This is mainly due to the strong US dollar and higher US interest rates which overall would lead to a decrease in investment gold demand.
For 2016 the analysts expect a slight increase (2.7 %) in the gold price as a reaction to the low profitability of mines which translates into a lower supply.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2015 | US$ 925 | |
2016 | US$ 950 |
Source: ABN AMRO Quarterly Commodity Outlook October 2014
The World Bank predicts a decrease of the gold price in the long term
October 2014
According to the World Bank the gold prices will continue to fall in 2015 and beyond.
The World Bank argues that the gold price would decrease for instance due the fact that institutional investors would consider gold as less of a “safe haven” investment than previously.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2015 | US$ 1,240 | |
2020 | US$ 1,168 | |
2025 | US$ 1,100 |
Source: The World Bank: Global Economic Prospects – Commodity Markets Outlook October 2014
Goldman Sachs increases gold price target
August 18th, 2014
Goldman Sachs has increased its long term gold forecast to U.S. dollars 1,200 according to a client letter from July 2014. This is an increase from the previously forecasted USD 1,050 for end of 2014 but the forecasted price is still below the current price of about USD 1,300.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2015 – Long term | US$ 1,200 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Goldman Sachs lowers its gold price forecast for 2013 and 2014
November 4th, 2013
According to a study by Goldman Sachs, analysts of the U.S. investment bank expect the price of gold to stagnate around 1,320 U.S. dollars by year-end. By the end of 2014, the price will drop to 1,050 U.S. dollars. According to the analysts, the precious metal will be listed in the next few years on average at U.S. dollars 1,200.
The reason for the current drop in the precious metal’s price are surprisingly positive data from the U.S. and the concomitant fear of a monetary policy change. The prospect of an end to the ultra-loose monetary policy has led Goldman Sachs to lower its forecast for the gold price.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
End of 2014 | US$ 1,050 |
Source: Goldman Sachs
Best forecasters compiled by Bloomberg see drop in gold price
October 17th, 2013 – Bloomberg
According to a Bloomberg news article dated October 17th, 2013, the most accurate analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years predict that the price of gold will decline in each of the next four quarters and reach a four-year low as reduced U.S. stimulus in response to faster economic growth curbs demand for bullion as a safe haven.
According to the median of estimates from the 10 most-accurate precious metals forecasters, gold will drop to an average of $1,175 an ounce in the third quarter next year, a level at which prices were last in 2010.
The forecasts show the assumption of the analysts that some investors have lost faith in gold as a store of value as the decline in its price will result in the first annual loss in 13 years.
“Desire to buy gold as a hedge against the consequences of monetary policy has diminished,” said Tom Kendall, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in London whose precious-metals forecasts were the second most-accurate over the past two years according to Bloomberg. He added “when you’ve got other asset classes, equities in particular, doing so well, then it’s hard to divert investments out of them and into something like gold, which is falling.”
According to Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London and – in Bloomberg’s opinion – the most accurate precious-metals forecaster over the past two years “a lot of gold has been held for speculative purposes, investment and a store of value, and that’s less of a reason going forward. If you sell your gold and put your money into equities, other fixed-income assets or real estate, you’re going to show a return. The gold bull market is definitely over.”
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
third quarter 2014 | US$ 1,175 |
Source: Bloomberg
HSBC cuts gold price estimate for 2013
April 26th, 2013 – HSBC
Following the strong decline of the gold price earlier in April, the global bank HSBC cut its gold price forecast for the year 2013 from US Dollar 1,700 to US Dollar 1,542. HSBC blamed the price drop for damaging investor confidence, which could take many months to be restored.
HSBC now predicts a gold price of US Dollar 1,600 by 2014, revised down from its ealier forecast of US Dollar 1,720. The estimated price per ounce of gold of USD 1,600 for 2014 is well above the current gold price level. HSBC assumes that the recent price decline will lead to higher demand for gold jewelry and gold coins from Asian markets, especially from China and India.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,542 | |
2014 | US$ 1,600 |
Source: Reuters
Goldman Sachs lowers gold price targets
April 10th, 2013 – Goldman Sachs/ Damien Courvalin, Jeffrey Currie
The investment bank Goldman Sachs has again reduced the gold prices it predicts through 2014. The three-month target for the gold price was cut from US$ 1,615 to US$ 1,530. The predicted gold price in six month was lowered from US$ 1,600 to US$ 1,490 and the estimated gold price in 12 months was reduced to US$ 1,390 – from US$ 1,550.
Goldman Sachs assumes that gold price is accelerating its price decline due to an U.S. economy that would improve further and that a sustained price increase that could be driven by higher inflation rates would be potentially several years away.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
next 3 months | US$ 1,530 | |
next 6 months | US$ 1,490 | |
next 12 months | US$ 1,390 |
Source: Bloomberg
Credit Suisse expects lower gold price
April 3, 2013 – Credit Suisse
The bank and brokerage firm Credit Suisse revised its gold price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 downwards.
For 2013 the bank now expects an average price of US$ 1,580 per fine troy ounce in 2013 and US$ 1,500 in 2014 – which equals cuts of 9.2% and 12.8% respectively of their previous forecasts. Credit Suisse cites reduced prospects of further banking or liquidity crises and overall extreme risks as reasons for revising their estimates.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,580 | |
2014 | US$ 1,500 |
Societe Generale sees a gold price bubble
March 21, 2013 – Societe Generale/ Commodities Review Note – Robin Bhar
SocGen lowered its gold price forecasts. The predicted gold price for 2013 was lowered from USD 1,700.- to 1,500.- and the estimated price for 2014 was cut from USD 1,600 to USD 1,400.
Societe Generale assumes that a gold price bubble has developed over the last years, which will be followed by a bear market. The authors of the review note cite a recovering US economy, which will lead to decreasing stimulus measures, as well as increasing interest rates but furthermore low inflation rates as reasons for their predictions.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,500 | |
December 2013 | US$ 1,375 | |
2014 | US$ 1,400 |
Bank of America Merrill Lynch lowers gold forecasts for 2013 and 2014
March 5, 2013 – Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ Michael Widmer
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tuesday reduced its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, citing improving economic conditions and a rise in U.S. nominal rates.
The bank reduced its average price forecast for gold in 2013 to US$1,680 a troy ounce and its 2014 forecast to US$1,838 per ounce. It now doesn’t expect gold to rise above US$2,000 until 2014. This constitutes a turnaround from the bank’s previous forecast in which it had predicted a move above US$2,000z in the second quarter of 2013.
According to Michael Widmer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s metals strategist, gold prices have been range-bound for several quarters after a multi-year rally. The bank expects headwinds to gold prices to persist in the near term.
According to Mr. Widmer, a rise in U.S. nominal rates is proving a particular drag on investment demand for the metal as it would raise the cost of storing gold. Improving economic conditions would also raise doubts over the metal’s safe-haven appeal. At the same time, sizeable output gaps in many nations had prevented a meaningful pick-up of inflation and inflation expectations in the current recovery phase.
However, according to Mr. Widmer, despite near-term headwinds, several factors could boost gold prices in the longer term. In particular, real yields could trend lower in 2014. Furthermore, foreign-exchange reserve diversification from emerging market central banks on the back of currency interventions to offset a weaker yen could bring about increased gold buying later in 2013. Further out, the bank believes that investors will lose some of their clout on the gold market as emerging countries will become more affluent, which should lead to higher jewellery purchases.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,680 | |
2014 | US$ 1,838 |
Source: MarketWatch / The Wall Street Journal
Goldman Sachs predicts end of gold price rally and reduces gold price forecasts again
Feburary 26th, 2013 – Goldman Sachs
According to a report by the bank, Goldman Sachs estimates that the gold price cycle has likely already started to turn and expects an end to the increase in the gold price which is already lasting for twelve years. Goldman Sachs lowered its gold price forecasts for the next three, six, and twelve months to US$1,615, US$1,600, and US$1,550 an ounce respectively. The current gold price is slightly above US$1,592 per ounce.
According to the report, the recovery in the U.S. economy gathers momentum and some U.S. central bankers seek more flexibility in their stimulus program. Goldman Sachs was also surprised by the latest collapse in gold ETF holdings that would stand in sharp contrast to their assumption that ETF positions were likely driven by longer-term allocation rather than short-term trading.
According to Goldman’s report, their “economists believe that the downside risks to their forecasts have diminished while the uncertainty about the size of QE3 is high. We believe that a shift has occurred over the past few months with conviction in holding gold waning quickly.”
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
next 3 months | US$ 1,615 | |
next 6 months | US$ 1,600 | |
next 12 months | US$ 1,550 |
Source: Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley expects gold rally to continue
January 24th, 2013 – Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley’s Peter Richardson and Joel Crane see gold extending its rally in 2013 and into 2014. According to the analysts, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain asset purchases for two more years to strengthen the recovery of the U.S. economy.
The analysts expect an “ongoing commitment” to the third round of quantitative easing. With regard to elevated unemployment and tail risks to growth they see it as unlikely that current monetary policy will change before the end of 2014.
According to their report, gold may average US$1,830 an ounce in the last quarter of 2013 from US$1,715 in the first, US$1,745 in the second and US$1,800 in the third. The analysts expect prices will be driven by investment and central-bank buying of gold as a reserve portfolio asset.
See Businessweek.com for more coverage on this report.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
first quarter 2013 | US$ 1,715 | |
second quarter 2013 | US$ 1,745 | |
third quarter 2013 | US$ 1,800 | |
last quarter 2013 | US$ 1,830 |
Source: BloombergBusinessweek
LBMA’s annual survey suggests average gold price of US$ 1,753 for 2013
January 11th, 2013 – LBMA
LBMA’s Forecast 2013, its survey among analysts on the direction of the price of gold which is conducted annually, estimates an average price for gold of 1,753 U.S. dollars for 2013. That price would mean a 5.3% increase compared to the average gold price to date in January 2013. The forecast is based on a survey among 23 contributors – among them Tom Kendall of Credit Suisse Securities Europe, Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Brebner, Philip Klapwijk of Thomson Reuters GFMS and James Steel of HSBC.
The lowest average price of gold predicted by contributors to the survey was 1,600 U.S. dollars which was estimated by Rene Hochreiter of Allan Hochreiter Ltd and Eddie Nagao of Sumitomo Corporation. The highest price – 1,900 U.S. dollars – was forecasted by Joni Teves of UBS, followed by an average gold price of 1,895 U.S. dollars which was predicted by TD Securities’ Bart Melek.
You can find further details about the survey on LBMA’s website.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,753 |
Source: LBMA Press Notice
HSBC lowers average gold price forecast for 2013 and introduces forecast for 2015
January 4th, 2013 – HSBC Global Research
In early January 2013 James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst, revised HSBC’s predictions for the price of gold after factoring in a 2012 year-end price of 1,657 U.S. dollars per ounce. HSBC lowered its forecast for the average gold price in 2013 to 1,760 U.S. dollars/oz (down from their forecast of 1,850 U.S. dollars at the end of October 2012) and expects the market to remain volatile. For 2014 the bank still predicts a price of 1,775 U.S. dollars an ounce. For 2015 it estimates an gold price of 1.675 U.S. dollars an ounce, the long-term forecast is 1,500 U.S. dollars.
According to Steel, gold prices will recover in 2013. Among the reasons given were the adoption of easing of monetary policy by major central banks, the likely recovery of Indian consumption, strong Chinese demand based on China’s growing GDP and strong demand from central banks, particularly in emerging countries, which would keep accumulating gold as one strategy to diversify their foreign exchange holdings.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,760 | |
2014 | US$ 1,775 | |
2015 | US$ 1,675 | |
long-term | US$ 1,500 |
Source: The Globe and Mail and The Business Times
Credit Suisse lowers gold price forecasts for 2013 and 2014
January 3rd, 2013 – Credit Suisse
The Swiss bank decreased its forecast for the average gold price over 2013 from 1,840 U.S. dollars to 1,740 U.S. dollars per troy ounce and lowered the 2014 gold price forecast to 1,720 U.S. dollars an ounce from 1,750 U.S. dollars. However, those forecasts also assume an increase in the current price of gold.
According to analysts at the bank, “the 12-year-old U.S. dollar gold bull market is not yet dead in our opinion but nor is it in the best of health.” They expect for 2013 further prolonged periods of range trading in a low implied volatility environment.
In case their central macroeconomic case, according to which the acute phase of the global crisis is probably over and there will be slow improvement in growth through the second half, would prove to be correct, the relative appeal of gold would be “likely to diminish as fear trades fade.”
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,740 | |
2014 | US$ 1,720 |
Source: Fox Business
Morgan Stanley predicts a rising gold price for 2013 and gives 4 reasons why gold is their favorite commodity for 2013
December 6th, 2012 – Morgan Stanley
According to a Business Insider article, Morgan Stanley’s Hussein Allidina argues that gold is the best commodity for 2013. In a note written by Allidina, the analysts maintain their long-standing recommendation of overweight exposure to precious metals as conditions underpinning the gold bull-run would largely remain in place.
The reasons given in the note are a weaker US dollar, central bank buying, ETF demand and a recovery in Indian demand.
The four reasons for gold are in detail:
- The US dollar is predicted to come under pressure due to the Fed’s commitment to a near zero Federal Funds rate though 2014 and open ended purchases of mortgage backed securities. At the same time, the ECB’s decision to adopt an unlimited bond purchase program through the Outright Monetary Transactions initiative, subject to the conditionality of a full EFSF/ESM facility, would reduce downside risks for the euro and increase the likelihood of downward pressure on the TWI of the USD, via the USD/EUR cross rate.
- Central banks’ preference for gold as a reserve portfolio asset is expected to further strengthen gold investment demand.
- The physically backed ETFs would remain a solid basis for growth in investment and retail demand.
- The Indian jewellery and investment market would show signs of recovery as Indian purchasers would acclimate to recent price trends and the Indian wedding and festival season lies ahead.
Allidina predicts for 2013 an average gold price of US$1,853 an ounce.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,853 |
Source: Business Insider
Goldman Sachs lowers forecasts for gold in 2013 and predicts turn in gold price cycle
December 5th, 2012 – Goldman Sachs
According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs considers a turn in the current gold bull cycle in 2013 as likely. Goldman Sachs cut its gold price forecasts for the coming three, six, and twelve months to US$1,825, US$1,805, and US$1,800 an ounce respectively. Currently, the gold price is slightly below US$ 1,700 an ounce.
The bank also predicts for 2014 a gold price of US$1,750 an ounce.
Goldman Sachs expects the gold price to be driven by “the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in real rates on better U.S. economic growth”. According to their expanded modelling, the improving U.S. growth outlook will likely outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion. The bank added it was difficult to call a price peak due to the elevated risks to its growth outlook, particularly with regard to the fiscal cliff.
The bank said, their forecast for limited upside to gold prices accounted for their economists’ expectation for further Fed easing later in 2013. It expects that an improving U.S. growth outlook would more than offset the potential for further Fed balance sheet expansion.
In case of absent additional easing in late 2013, Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices to decline at a faster pace in 2013 and to reach $1,625 an ounce by the end of that year. In case of a weaker U.S. growth outlook, gold prices are predicted to trend higher, reaching $1,900 an ounce by the end of 2013.
You can find the full Reuters article here.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
next 3 months | US$ 1,825 | |
next 6 months | US$ 1,805 | |
next 12 months | US$ 1,800 | |
2014 | US$ 1,750 |
Source: Reuters
Commerzbank predicts rising gold price for 2013
November 30th, 2012 – Commerzbank
Commodity analysts of Commerzbank predict a further increase of the price of gold in 2013. They forecast an average gold price in 2013 of US$ 1,950 per ounce.
The analysts consider it as likely that the price of gold will at least temporarily exceed US$ 2,000 in the coming year. This could happen as soon as in the first quarter of 2013 if the US would not find a sustainable solution for the budget dispute and an increase of the debt limit would take long.
The most important price driver is expected to be central banks’ extremely loose monetary policy which would undermine the value of the currencies. Additionally, the debt crisis in the euro zone and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are considered to be important drivers for a sustained demand for gold as a ‘safe haven’.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,950 |
Source: BoerseGo.de
Gold price predictions compiled by Bloomberg
November 20th, 2012 – Bloomberg
According to a Bloomberg news article dated November 20th, 2012, many analysts are bullish on gold.
Bloomberg has compiled gold price forecasts of 16 analysts. According to the median of their predictions, the price of gold will increase during every quarter in 2013 and average US$ 1,925oz in the last quarter – that is 11% higher than now.
Tom Kendall from Credit Suisse estimates an average gold price of US$ 1,880 in the last quarter of 2013, Jochen Hitzfeld from UniCredit predicts US$ 1,950. For the third quarter of 2013, Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Brebner expects a gold price of US$ 2,300. According to Bloomberg, the three mentioned analysts were the most accurate gold forecasters tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years, with Tom Kendall being the most accurate forecaster followed by Jochen Hitzfeld and Daniel Brebner.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
last quarter 2013 | US$ 1,925 |
Source: Bloomberg
ScotiaMocatta’s 2013 Forecast expects gold price to rise
November 2012 – ScotiaMocatta
ScotiaMocatta remains bullish for gold due to the concerns over EU and US debt and the ongoing quantitative easing. In it’s Precious Metals 2013 Forecast, the bullion bank expects gold prices to rise as quantitative easing debases the value of paper money and investor’s demand for safety further monetarises gold.
According to the bank, policymakers seem intent on finding the least painful solutions to the debt problems. This would likely involve reducing the debt burden by devaluing it which would probably result in creditors further diversifying away from fiat assets.
Having consolidated between September 2011 and September 2012, the bank estimates “gold prices have stated another leg up that is likely to lead to new highs during 2013”. The bank writes it would not be surprised to see prices reach US$2,200/oz, although it would be difficult to gauge how far prices will increase.
Eventually, once the bull market has run its course and there is less need for safe-havens, the bank would look for prices to retrace back towards US$1,100/1,200oz as investment gold is liquidated and supply surges, but – as the bank states – they certainly do not expect that to happen in the coming year.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Short to midterm | expected to rise |
Source: ScotiaMocatta
BNP Paribas cuts 2013 gold price forecast, but still expects gold price to rise
November 16, 2012 – BNP Paribas / Anne-Laure Tremblay
The global bank lowered its gold price forecast for 2012 by US$10 to $1,675 and its 2013 outlook by US$35 to US$1,865 per ounce, saying the impact of the latest round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve has not been felt so far.
“In 2013, gold could break its previous record high, but the potential for further upside may be limited thereafter,” analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay said in a note. According to the analyst, the timing of the gold price peak will be closely linked to the rate of improvement in the G3 economies.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2012 | US$ 1,675 | |
2013 | US$ 1,865 |
Gold price to rise to US$ 2,000 according to Deutsche Bank
November 14, 2012 – Deutsche Bank/ Raymond Key
Raymond Key, global head of metals trading at Deutsche Bank In London, expects a gold price rally to a record level above US$ 2,000 per ounce by next year. This prediction is based on the assumption that more money will be printed in order to sustain the economic recovery with stimulus.
According to Mr. Key, the rally is becoming more mature and the outlook for gold is pretty positive but people shouldn’t expect too much.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | above US$ 2,000 |
Source: Bloomberg
London Bullion Market Association predicts gold price of US$ 1,843 by September 2013
November 13, 2012 – LBMA
At the annual conference of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) participants estimated the gold price to reach US$ 1,843 by September 2013. This price would equal a rise of about 6.7% from current levels. As drivers for this rise of the gold price increased demand from Asia and especially China as well as further monetary easing in the United States were cited.
More than half of the conference participants expect another round of quantitative easing in the U.S. and 56% forecast China’s economy will grow by 7-8% next year.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
September 2013 | US$ 1,843 |
Gold price rally to continue in 2013 according to HSBC
October 22, 2012 – HSBC/ James Steel and Howard Wen
HSBC analysts James Steel and Howard Wen lowered their 2012 forecasts for the average gold price to US$ 1,700 but increased their average price forecast for 2013 to US$ 1,850/oz. They also raised their average gold price forecast for 2014 to US$ 1,775/oz.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,850 | |
2014 | US$ 1,775 |
Credit Suisse predicts gold price of US$ 1,840 in 2013
October 12, 2012 – Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse, the global investment bank, has raised its gold price forecast for 2013 to US$ 1,840 per ounce. CS also raised its forecasted gold price for the year 2014 to US$ 1,750. According to Credit Suisse, more quantitative easing in the U.S., a risk of a rating cut of the U.S. credit rating and higher demand from China and India are the key drivers for the change in the forecasted price of gold.
Credit Suisse leaves its gold price forecast for 2012 at US$ 1,680 per ounce.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 1,840 | |
2014 | US$ 1,750 |
UBS sees average gold price of US$ 1,700 for 2012 and rise to US$ 1,900 in 2013
October 11, 2012 – UBS
The Swiss based investment bank UBS has raised its 2012 average forecasted gold price to US$ 1,700. For 2013 UBS predicts a gold price of US$ 1,900 per ounce.
UBS cites a U.S. recovery, inefficient mine production in South Africa and the open-ended nature of quantitative easing as drivers for a rise of the gold price.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2012 | US$ 1,700 | |
2013 | US$ 1,900 |
Coutts analyst expects gold price to rise to US$ 2,000 in coming months
October 10, 2012 – Coutts/ Gary Dougan
A senior executive of Coutts – the private banking arm of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) – expects the gold price to increase towards US$ 2,000 per ounce in the next months. According to Gary Dougan, who is Coutts’ chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East, medium-term drivers such as net purchases by central banks of emerging market countries would be drivers for an increase of the gold price.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Next several months | US$ 2,000 |
Source: Reuters
Deutsche Bank raised its gold-price outlook for 2013 and 2014
October 2, 2012 – Deutsche Bank/ Michael Lewis
Deutsche Bank expects that the balance sheet expansions by central banks and the resulting higher demand for gold from investors will result in a rising gold price. Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast to US$ 2,113/oz in 2013 and US$ 2,000/oz by 2014.
According to Deutsche Bank, due to the announcement of an open-ended quantitative easing program by the Federal Reserve, a surge of the gold price is only a matter of time.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
2013 | US$ 2,113 | |
2014 | US$ 2,000 |
Bank of America forecasts gold price of US$ 2,400 by the end of 2014
September 21, 2012 – Bank of America Merrill lynch/ Sabine Schels, MacNeill Curry
Analysts of Bank of Amercia Merrill Lynch predict a gold price of US$ 2,000 within the next six months. Sabine Schels, head of fundamental commodity research, forecasts a price of US$ 2,400 per ounce by the end of 2014. Schels cites actions by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank as key drivers for the price increase.
According to MacNeill Curry, head of foreign exchange and rates technical strategy, the could price could ultimately reach US$ 3,000 – 5,000.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Next six months | US$ 2,000 | |
End of 2014 | US$ 2,400 |
Source: CNBC
Thomson Reuters GFMS sees a gold price of $ 1,850+ over the next months
September 4, 2012 – Thomson Reuters GFMS/ Philip Klapwijk
Philip Klapwijk, head of metal analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS, views a gold price rise to US$ 1,850 per ounce or above as likely over the next several months. Mr. Klapwijk cites increased demand from investors, the prospect of further quantitative easing in the United States and potential measures by the European Central Bank as well as potential stimulus measures in China as possible drivers for such a rise.
Mr. Klapwijk also forecasts new gold price records above US$ 2,000 in the first half of 2013. However, he also estimates that gold prices could subsequently see the lows of less than US$ 1,550/oz as experienced during this summer.
Time Frame | Gold Price Forecast | Trend |
---|---|---|
Next several months | US$ 1,850+ | |
1st half of 2013 | above US$ 2,000 | |
Later future | below US$ 1,550 |
Source: Financial Times